Prospective analysis of Simantri sustainability: A probability approach

Ida Ayu Nyoman Saskara; Ni Putu Wiwin Setyari; I Dewa Ayu Made Natasah Dewani; Desak Made Marysha Dewi; Desak Putu Diah Merta Lestari

doi:10.24914/jeb.v27i1.8435

Authors

Ida Ayu Nyoman Saskara Faculty of Economic and Business, Udayana University
Ni Putu Wiwin Setyari Faculty of Economic and Business, Udayana University
I Dewa Ayu Made Natasah Dewani Faculty of Economic and Business, Udayana University
Desak Made Marysha Dewi Faculty of Economic and Business, Udayana University
Desak Putu Diah Merta Lestari Faculty of Economic and Business, Udayana University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24914/jeb.v27i1.8435

Keywords:

Probability of scenarios, simatri program, SMIC-Prob analysis

Abstract

The Simantri program is a long-term regional initiative aimed at the welfare of Bali's farmers as well as self-sufficiency in food, feed, organic fertilizer, energy, and biogas. This study aims to determine the probability scenario and the scenario's sensitivity driving the Simantri program's sustainability. This study was conducted within the Tabanan Regency. The data for this purpose were gathered through interviews with Simantri farmers and 115 respondents as assistants using a structured questionnaire and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) with 19 funding experts or stakeholder groups. The SMIC-Prob Expert model analyzed data from the FGD results compared to or considered alongside the questionnaire results. The results of the analysis indicate that scenario combination "1101" (cattle, economic side, and commercial) has the highest probability, with a probability of 0.138. According to the elasticity-based sensitivity analysis, the cattle and commercial scenario is the "primary mover" or primary driver of the system. With cattle elasticity of 1.677 and a commercial elasticity of 1.344, the Simantri program's sustainability largely depends on these two scenarios. Sustainability recommendations for the Simantri program is "prime over”.

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