Analisa Garis Kemiskinan di Jawa Tengah Tahun 2013 - 2020 dengan Metode Error Correction Model (ECM)

Abstract

This study focuses on testing how much the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) have a long-term effect on the Poverty Line in Central Java in 2013- 2020. The data used is secondary data quoted from the Central Java Statistics Agency website. Type of data used in the estimation model is time series for the period 2013-2020. After testing the degree of integration using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) estimation, it’s found that the more appropriate estimation model to use is the Error Correction Model (ECM) because the data is stationary at the 2nd difference level. The cointegration test results show that the data used has long-term cointegration marked by significant Error Correction Term (ECT) value with p-value of less than 5% alpha level. The results indicate that in the short term the variables of the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) have no effect on changes the Poverty Line in Central Java. However, in the long term these variables can affect changes in the Poverty Line rate in Central Java. Long-term changes in the povery line can be used to reduce poverty for reach the first goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs).