ANALISIS TEKANAN SUMBER INFLASI DI INDONESIA: SUATU APLIKASI METODE SVAR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24246/dekat.v4i2.19797Keywords:
Inflasi, Syok Permintaan, Syok Penawaran, SVAR, Inflation, Demand Shock, Supplay ShockAbstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi kontribusi relatif inflasi sisi permintaan dan inflasi sisi penawaran terhadap dinamika inflasi di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan data triwulanan PDB riil dan Indeks Harga Konsumen, analisis dilakukan melalui penerapan model Structural Vector Autoregression dengan restriksi jangka panjang untuk memisahkan sumber tekanan inflasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa inflasi di Indonesia cenderung lebih dipengaruhi oleh sisi penawaran dibandingkan sisi permintaan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa dinamika inflasi di Indonesia berkaitan erat dengan faktor biaya, gangguan pasokan, dan karakteristik struktural perekonomian. Implikasinya, kebijakan moneter lebih efektif dalam merespons inflasi yang bersumber dari sisi permintaan, sementara tekanan inflasi dari sisi penawaran memerlukan dukungan kebijakan struktural dan koordinasi lintas sektor. Penelitian ini memberikan dasar empiris bagi perumusan kebijakan pengendalian inflasi yang lebih tepat sasaran.
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