PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN TARIF IMPOR TRUMP TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG) DI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24246/dekat.v4i2.17883Keywords:
IHSG, Tariff policy, Exchange rate, Tarif impor, Nilai tukarAbstract
Pada April 2025, pasar modal Indonesia mengalami gejolak setelah Presiden Amerika Serikat, Donald Trump, mengumumkan kebijakan tarif impor sebesar 32% terhadap sejumlah produk Indonesia, yang menyebabkan IHSG anjlok hingga 9,19% dan memicu trading halt. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh pengumuman kebijakan tarif tersebut terhadap pergerakan IHSG dalam jangka pendek, dengan memasukkan nilai tukar rupiah/USD, indeks S&P500, dan Indeks Volatilitas (VIX) sebagai variabel kontrol. Data yang digunakan berupa data harian selama 30 hari sebelum dan sesudah pengumuman tarif pada 8 April 2025. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, pengumuman tarif Trump berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap IHSG, sementara nilai tukar, S&P500, dan VIX tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini mendukung Efficient Market Hypothesis bentuk semi-kuat, yang menyatakan bahwa pasar merespons cepat informasi publik baru namun efeknya bersifat sementara. Penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa guncangan eksternal berupa kebijakan tarif dapat memengaruhi IHSG dalam jangka pendek tanpa menimbulkan dampak signifikan dalam jangka panjang.
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