STUDI PENGUKURAN OUTPUT GAP DENGAN METODE HODRICK–PRESCOTT FILTER DI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24246/dekat.v5i1.13263Keywords:
Output Gap, Hodrick-Prescott Filter, Inflation, Population Growth, Interest Rates, Trade Openness, Inflasi, Pertumbuhan Penduduk, Suku Bunga, Keterbukaan PerdaganganAbstract
Output gap merupakan indikator penting dalam analisis makroekonomi yang mencerminkan selisih antara Produk Domestik Bruto (GDP) aktual dan potensial suatu negara. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi output gap dengan menggunakan Hodrick Prescott Filter dan melakukan analisis terhadap faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi output gap di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode VECM pada periode 1986-2024. Variabel independen yang digunakan meliputi inflasi, pertumbuhan penduduk, tingkat suku bunga, dan keterbukaan perdagangan. Dalam jangka panjang, suku bunga dan keterbukaan perdagangan berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap output gap, sedangkan pertumbuhan penduduk berpengaruh positif signifikan. Inflasi tidak signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Dalam jangka pendek, dinamika output gap dipengaruhi oleh suku bunga dan inflasi, sementara variabel lain tidak signifikan. Koefisien error correction term tidak signifikan, menunjukkan proses penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang yang lemah. Temuan ini mengindikasikan pentingnya peran kebijakan moneter dalam mengelola fluktuasi siklus ekonomi dan menjaga stabilitas makroekonomi.
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