Month of the Year Effect pada Pasar Obligasi di Indonesia

Keywords: month of the year effect, INDOBeX, Indonesian Bond Market, GARCH, capital market efficiency

Abstract

This study examines the month-of-the-year effect on the bond returns in Indonesia. I use the monthly closing price index (Indonesia Bond Indexes / INDOBeX) data for the periods of July 2003-July 2017 from Bloomberg. I then run the Generalize Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) analysis technique to analyze the data because the residuals exhibit a significant pattern of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The results show that only the month of July has a significantly positive effect on the bond returns; indicating that there is the month-of-the-year effect in the Indonesian bond market. Further, these also imply that the Indonesian bond market does not exhibit a random walk pattern and consequently they are inefficient in the weak form.


Abstrak

Penelitian ini menguji pengaruh bulan-bulan perdagangan (month of the year) terhadap return obligasi di Indonesia. Data yang dipergunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data indeks harga obligasi (Indonesia Bond Indexes / INDOBeX) penutupan bulanan selama periode Juli 2003 hingga Juli 2017 yang diperoleh dari Bloomberg. Analisis data dilakukan dengan menggunakan teknik analisis Generalize Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) karena pola residual yang dihasilkan menunjukkan adanya pola Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) yang signifikan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa bulan Juli memiliki pengaruh positif yang signifikan terhadap return obligasi di Indonesia. Sementara bulan-bulan lainnya tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap return obligasi di Indonesia. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa terjadi month of the year effect di pasar obligasi di Indonesia. Temuan ini memiliki implikasi bahwa pasar obligasi di Indonesia tidak berjalan acak (random walk) sehingga tidak efisien dalam bentuk lemah.

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Published
2017-11-02
How to Cite
Robiyanto, R. (2017). Month of the Year Effect pada Pasar Obligasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 20(2), 291-302. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24914/jeb.v20i2.1093
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Articles